XLNTrade has a wide variety of financial products XLNTrade's advantages include its wide range of financial products. They have up to 47 currency pairs, many of which are minor or exotic. As examples USD / CNH, USD / HUF, USD / PLN… etc. It also allows you to invest in gold, silver, natural gas, platinum, oil, coffee, cocoa, corn ... 15 main indices and lots of shares. And also in cryptocurrencies. Such a wide offer allows us to diversify our investments and energies. Not having luck with currency pairs? Try investing in raw materials! You may find your niche in places you've never thought of before. Here is the best strategy of trading
I'll try to explain. The context is the concept of purchasing power parity: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/fliz8m/purchasing_power_parity_ppp_in_fx/ The concept is that the numbers themselves can tell you a lot, for example, the rate of a pair, say AUD/CAD specifically state what the AUDJPY and CADJPY should be. The AUDCAD is 0.83183 which means 1 CAD is equal to 1.20216 AUD. So however many JPY you can get for a AUD you should be able to get 1.20216 times more JPY for a CAD. AUDJPY = 64.201 64.201 x 1.20216 = CADJPY = 77.17987 DISEQUILLIBRIUM: But the actual market price is CADJPY=76.974. Which means there is a disequilibrium between what the actual rate is. It can be quantified as the difference, -0.20587. I've taken that concept and expanded it to all currencies in a pretty large spreadsheet. The aggregate disequilibrium is accounted for each pair. CURRENCY WEIGHT: For this example, both the AUD is putting -0.20587 "weight" on the CADJPY and the CAD is putting -0.20587 "wieght" on the AUDJPY. This is collected for each individual currency and added together to represent the weight. INDEX STRENGTH: For example: EUGBP 0.91447 USD/GBP 0.86211 CHF/GBP 0.87428 CAD/GBP 0.60099 AUD/GBP 0.50116 NZD/GBP 0.50600 JPY/GBP 0.007776594 ZAGBP 0.0484013 NOKGBP 0.0717705 HKD/GBP 0.110299 CNH/GBP 0.119747 SGD/GBP 0.588505 TRY/GBP 0.129911 SEK/GBP 0.0821385 DKK/GBP 0.12234 PLN/GBP 0.200372 MXN/GBP 0.0348339 RUB/GBP 0.0106524 Which averages out to 12.20271181 for the GBP. When this is done for each currency and added together which comes to 80.2174589. GBP 12.20271181 15.21% EUR 10.70881522 13.35% USD 10.43321516 13.01% CHF 9.209341569 11.48% CAD 7.268234336 9.06% SGD 7.16468796 8.93% AUD 6.058258744 7.55% NZD 6.065011193 7.56% PLN 2.411473714 3.01% TRY 1.541615401 1.92% DKK 1.441292277 1.80% CNH 1.411273128 1.76% HKD 1.290361376 1.61% SEK 0.952565391 1.19% NOK 0.839225708 1.05% ZAR 0.54313985 0.68% MXN 0.507674255 0.63% JPY 0.094083269 0.12% RUB 0.074478539 0.09% I've found that charting isn't needed to understand what prices should be now. They help in understanding what motivates people to have money exposed. Charts are in the psychological part of trading. Edit: The JPY pairs are calculated times 0.01, that's why it's index is greater than RUB. I guess I can't post the charts anymore.
Cryptocurrency Trading With Forex. How does It work?
The demand of cryptocurrency is growing every day. New technologies demonstrate potential power, demonstrating that a currency that is not controlled by the state can really exist. Rather than just Bitcoin today a large number of alternative forks have been created in the blockchain. In this article, we will examine what is a cryptocurrency, features of its reputation, as well as methods of working in the Forex market.
What Are Cryptocurrencies?
So, first, let's find out what is cryptocurrency. In essence, it is a decentralized digital network that is based on mathematical principles and is protected by cryptographic methods. This Digital currency is anonymous, genuine, and in fact open, so shifts between wallet owners are done in minutes, depending on the type of currency. Digital money is not attached to fiat currency, and its product is originally restricted by the algorithm. First in cryptocurrency is Bitcoin, which appeared in 2009. After Bitcoin demonstrated its promise, which happened relatively quickly, other digital currencies called altcoins began to appear at an active rate. Today, there are alternative "crypts" with more than 950 items. Nevertheless, not all of them are traded on exchanges and are engaging to investors, miners and traders. The cryptocurrency market operates 7 days a week and 24 hours a day, allowing exchange participants to buy, sell, and exchange currencies at any convenient time. This type of working also dismisses the concept of a trading session, which indicates that price variations can be hard at any time of the day. Furthermore, the market is very volatile, increasing its speculative appeal, and a large number of altcoins opens up more opportunities for exchange participants in terms of trade and investment. First of all, popularity is, of course, Bitcoin, and the percentage of its dominance over other currencies is 42.2%. The most famous coins today involve Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, Dash, Cardano and Zcash. Overall, in today's crypto market, there is active growth of many currencies. In this connection, investments in altcoins raised, which in a particular way, affected their development and rose theirs in value. Without a doubt, in the market for every cryptocurrency today, one can observe deep bribes or negligible price corrections. However, the general growth trend is unequivocally present. Therefore, many have already taken their savings out from under the mattresses and rushed to buy dynamic developing alternative currencies.
Crypto Trading with Forex Brokers
Today, digital money is available on brokerage firms' platforms as an alternative trading tool, which is implemented not only in direct trading of crypto assets but also in indifferent value contracts. Many Forex brokers provide you to start crypto accounts and trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc in pairs with EUR, JPY USD, RUR, and CNH The replenishment of the account and the withdrawal of funds are carried out through specialized payment systems. Therefore, after the withdrawal of profits, the trader will only have to exchange the coins earned for real money on online exchanges. Also, some brokers allow direct trading of Bitcoin and Ethereum alongside the dollar. Cryptocurrency is a promising investment and trading tool where everyone can find their own profit. In fact, it is easier to exchange it in Forex, since you can win with the same success both in the increases in the course and in your falls. The most reliable Forex brokers to gamble on cryptocurrencies foretell a continuation of the growth trend in the estimation of all currencies, so the one who worries that the bubble will collapse still has an opportunity to obtain their share of the desired profit. Those who do not have digital currency can use CFD contracts for difference in normal types of trading accounts with related efficiency This service is obtainable in the Alpari, InstaForex and Forex Club brokers.
What currency's to trade if we see a stock market sell off
We're at a major resistance level for stocks, I think possibly this week we see a major sell off. If you also thought so what currency's would you trade. I'm fairly new to trading forex so just curious. I know USD/JPY is a big one, I'm already short on USD/CNH for a long time now, what are the main pairs you would look at trading on a weak stock market or weak dollar?
Press Conference with the Governor of the People's Bank of China 任中国人民银行行长 Yi Gang 易纲 on current monetary and regulatory matters in the People's Republic of China for the year 2022
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is gladdened to announce that the efforts made by the Bank to consolidate financial markets and reign in unproductive credit and the misappropriation in debt lending are seeing bountiful returns. For the 2022 year forecast, we are thus heartened to state that the economy has exponentially preformed to bring growth above 7 percent, beating negative analysis on efforts on the PBOC and government's meaningful reforms to address core structural issues that have threatened the Chinese and global economy. While we have identified specific measures in relation to consumer demand and business growth, in conjunction with the improving regulatory framework, we foresee promising inflationary movement and are pleased to see an adaptive labour market take hold in overall trends for key benchmarks. In regards to the current developments in the Banks's stimulus efforts, we shall maintain the current level of market guidance and capital assistance. While we continue this approach, we are constantly assessing the Mainland's capital markets liquidity and should concerns be spotted that identify general overheating, the PBOC is ready to address those concerns and enforce targeted measures. Now, onto the main elements of the year's statement: the current status on the internationalisation of the Renminbi and policy responses to optimise a favourable environment as well as new guidelines on capital market The following discussion shall be complimented with the following handout:
The Renminbi - The People's Currency, and Soon the World's?
The Continued Dollar Dominance
First, a blunt fact: while multiple reserve currencies have co-existed before, and of course dominance today does not guarantee dominance in the future, with the British pound's fall as a gentle reminder of this, the PBOC is pragmatic in stating that dollar's demise looks a long ways off. Part of this is the on-the-ground data indicating that the drive to internationalisation has indeed lost much of its momentum as a reserve currency.
There is no better reminder that the US dollar is dominant than the rout across emerging market economies sine 2016-2020. The worst-performing currencies of 2019 shared a disproportionate reliance on the greenback. In 2015, 62 per cent of countries anchored their currencies to the dollar and about the same percentage of developing countries borrow in the currency.
On the other hand, less than 30 per cent of countries use the euro as an anchor for their exchange rates and only 13 per cent of external debt for developing countries is euro-denominated. The pound and the yen barely show up in the data.
When it comes to global currency reserves held by central banks, the dollar is unrivalled. While its share of global foreign-exchange reserves has fallen for five consecutive quarters, global central banks have more or less held some 60 per cent or more of their reserves in the greenback since 1996. Even with a loss of confidence in US markets, forex holdings in the Renminbi have been somewhat insignificant.
Chinese Efforts to Open Up the Renminbi - An Uneven Effort
In March 2019, China introduced its first renminbi-denominated oil futures contract, an attempt to have an alternative for domestic and international investors and traders to the petro-dollar order. However until the central government creates bilateral agreement with major oil-producing (OPEC) states to accept payment in Renminbi, this will continue to see sub-optimal results.
Since gaining a spot in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights basket of reserve currencies in 2015, China has also extended local currency swaps with various countries, including those along its landmark Belt and Road initiative, as well as took steps to open up its local bond market to foreign investors. Though given the sputtering results in BRI agreements and the concerns on excessive lending to questionable projects/governments, the BRI as a route to internationalisation has taken a backseat for policy makers.
Of concern to the PBOC and MOF policy analysts is that internationalisation of China's currency has stalled, and by some measures even reversed. As in 2016, the Renminbi was the fifth most actively used currency for domestic and international payments, with a roughly 2 per cent share, according to SWIFT. That's a drop from 2014 and 2015 when the use of China's currency doubled — in a year — to 2.8 per cent.
When only international payments are considered, the Renminbi drops to eighth place behind: the dollar, which comprises nearly 45 per cent; the euro with 32 per cent; followed by the Japanese yen, British pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar, which all have a share of 5 per cent or less.
Allowing market forces to play a larger role in determining the Renminbi's value and opening up the capital account would require a complete overhaul of the country's financial system. While we realise that such a policy shift would bring some expected gains, the PBOC sees little reason to make a great pivot towards liberalisation, but instead a concerted series of smaller policies - or to put it more traditionally, 'Crossing the river by grasping the stones on the riverbed.'
Making The Cross Across the Riverbed Towards A More Global Renminbi The PBOC has issued the following in its Guiding Measures to the Chinese Mainland and SAR financial markets:
A new rule shall be instituted on cross-border Renminbi FDI which stipulates that, in principle, all the foreign enterprises are allowed to raise Renminbi funds in offshore Renminbi markets and repatriate them back to the mainland in the form of FDI. Previously, the foreign firms’ behaviours of remitting Renminbi back into Mainland were subjected to the PBOC’s approval on a case-by-case basis.
These transactions are to be settled in Hong Kong accounts, thus increasing the amount of Yuan in circulation offshore; these offshore Renminbi will be distinctly referred to as CNH rather than the onshore CNY. Furthermore, this allows the PBOC to act should the policy be abused by market speculators looking for an easy entry into China's domestic capital markets.
This new rule will further buoy the offshore Renminbi (“Dim Sum”) bond market and accelerate the pace of Renminbi internationalisation.
The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs shall begin to broker with OPEC states an agreement on settlement of trade in crude oil and its derivatives be conducted in Renminbi, in a further boost to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Shanghai crude oil futures market.
The extension of the “mini-QFII” scheme to India, Pakistan, ASEAN, the Republic of Korea and Japan which will allow some foreign central banks, beyond only a handful of smaller nearby Asian countries, to start building a limited amount of currency reserves even before anything like full currency convertibility will be authorised and conducted. QFII stands for Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor, a designation that allows a company to invest in Chinese bonds and equities — though again, within guiding limits issued by the PBOC on a case-by-case basis.
Regulators will begin a similar pilot scheme - RQFII - that would allow financial institutions with a physical mainland presence to remit currency from their Hong Kong subsidiaries back to the mainland — and, potentially, foreign central banks to invest small amounts of Renminbi in the Chinese interbank bond market.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority already has QFII status, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore has applied, with the PBOC accepting further applications.
Foreign institutions will be given a capped access of no more than $100 million in Hong Kong accounts to derivatives, including financial futures, commodity futures and options in testing the markets' reaction to foreign operators.
Offshore yuan falls to record low, yen firm on intensifying trade frictions
This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 50%. (I'm a bot)
TOKYO - The offshore Chinese yuan fell to its weakest level on record on Monday while the Australian dollar flirted with this year's lows on concerns over a sharp escalation in the Sino-U.S. trade war. The Japanese currency rose to a seven-month peak as U.S. bond yields plunged, with the 10-year yield at near 3-year lows, also pressured by slowing U.S. jobs growth. The offshore yuan briefly fell to as low as 6.9875 per dollar on EBS CNH=, its weakest since the start of offshore trading, but quickly bounced back to 6.9793 CNH=EBS to be flat on the day. China on Friday vowed to fight back against U.S. President Donald Trump's abrupt decision to slap 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion in Chinese imports, a move that ended a month-long trade truce. The Australian dollar slipped 0.14% to $0.6791 AUD=D4, having hit seven-month low of $0.67625 on Friday. The yen extended its advance to 106.31 yen to the dollar JPY=EBS, down 0.29% from late U.S. levels while the Swiss franc CHF= gained 0.2% to 0.9799 per dollar.
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So I pulled up the data from January 2017 on both Euro and USD. I think everyone can agree that was when you wanted to go long EURUSD. Here's what I found on each of the categories that I've been told are important to fundamental analysis:
17-Jan euro usd
interest rate 0 0.75
inflation rate 1.8 2.5
gdp growth rate 0.6 1.2
unemployment rate 9.6 4.8
balance of trade -1583 -48715
government debt to GDP 90.3 105.8
Here's where we stand today:
18-Feb euro usd
interest rate 0 1.5
inflation rate 1.3 2.1
gdp growth rate 0.6 2.6
unemployment rate 8.7 4.1
balance of trade 26273 -53118
government debt to GDP 89.2 105.4
As I've noted before the big thing that stood out in the Jan 17 assessment is that negative trade balance on the US side. I still maintain that $48B/mo in negative cash flows (now $79B!) just from running the economy has to dwarf any contribution from Forex speculators, but maybe I'm wrong. Yes, trillions of dollars move through Forex and derivatives, but these are Euros being bought with no stop loss or take profit, and minimal concern for order entry position. We would have to go all the way back to May of 2014 to see conditions that greatly favored the US. Comparing this year to last, Euro is down 28% on its inflation but up 9.4% on unemployment and 1.2% on government debt. The trade balance has swung $24.7B in favor of the Euro. GDP growth rate and interest rate has not changed. On the other hand, the USD had doubled its interest rate while losing 16% of its inflation. GDP has more than doubled and unemployment has improved 14.6%. The massive trade deficit has worsened 9% to -$53B. Government debt improved last year 0.38% but I expect that number to worsen once Trump's tax plan is on the books. Tomorrow's inflation data is projected to show 1.9% which would be even worse at -24%. So going category by category:
interest rate: favors US for the moment (see below)
inflation: favors Euro
GDP: greatly favors US
BoT: greatly favors Euro
Government debt: favors Euro, soon will even more heavily
I'm not seeing inflation to justify interest rate increases on the USD side. If you want to buy bonds I think now is the time to do so. You can resell them later once the US announces it is backing off from interest rate increases. The Trump tax plan did prop up the stock market momentarily, but it also incurs debt that's going to hurt the US if it wants to continue raising interest rates. The US cannot fix its trade balance. The new tax plan really only helps plutocrats. I don't think giving more money to the average citizen would help either since the average citizen would just spend more on foreign goods. The only thing I can think of is some sort of redistribution of wealth, with a focus on helping small businesses. At any rate, I'm not a politician just a speculative spectator. Other than long EURUSD, JPY, ZAR, and CNH all look strong with high trade balances to counteract the USD. ZAR and CNH have higher interest rates, though Oanda doesn't pay interest on the CNH trade. NZD looks more risky but it might be worth a play as well. There isn't as much pressure for them to drive their currency down like there is for JPY and CNH. I like ZAR mostly as a hedge against the negative carry trade from being long the other currencies, but it should improve in value as well.
One thing has not happened with Bitcoin that I am surprised by. But firstly, a roundup of political and economic recent history as data points.
The USA has declined from it's peak as the world's largest economy, and the BRICS in total (and China almost on it's own) are now a larger economic unit.
Since 2008, the central banks of the major trading currencies in the world have engaged in unprecedented money printing (QE) as part of a largely unreported currency war. This inevitably will lead to a currency collapse for those currencies. Unfortunately this time the currency war is truly global and that implies a global collapse at an unknowable but fairly near time in the future.
The USA in a fairly imperial manner, has triggered an increasing number of conflicts around the globe, and now regularly resorts to 'asset freezes' and 'sanctions' on an arbitrary basis to exert it's global influence. (in addition to more traditional military pressure exerted by it's roving armed forces and extensive overseas garrisons)
Recently, the independence of SWIFT network was shown to be compromised when the USA forced it to suspend it's services to Iran.
The American VISA/Mastercard networks and American banks have also been coerced into removing their services from organisations that the US administration has some grudge with. Wikileaks, Colorado (legal) cannabis traders, Bitcoin traders and so on.
The BRICS countries, and especially Russia/China have now openly called for the 'de-dollarisation' of the world to constrain the actions of the USA, and Russia is now actively removing the use of VISA/Master card and replacing it with the Chinese UnionPay system
What has not happened, is for the BRICS countries to actively sideline SWIFT to remove the leverage that it gives the USA. What the BRICS need is a global payments system that is beyond US control and can cope with the type of settlements that SWIFT is used for. The Bitcoin network already exists globally, and is mostly beyond control of any single country (though it's usage can be locally throttled as shown by the subtle restrictions instituted by China). As such, it has promise as a drop-in replacement for SWIFT. There is just one problem - the current 'pricing' of Bitcoin is not high enough to support world trade. The Bitcoin pricing (approx USD 500 at present), is actively manipulated by 'whales' in the thin markets that exist. They move price up, then down and spike hope and panic to extract trading profits. Because the Bitcoin markets are so small and illiquid, the 'whales' are in fact only very small currency traders when compared with their peers in the global Forex markets. That means, a sovereign backed trader could simply begin to 'buy the market' and achieve two goals almost instantly.
Collect a small amount of Bitcoins for future use in trade settlement
Reprice Bitcoin massively upwards to make it suitable for world trade in competition with SWIFT.
At one level, this would also be remarkably profitable in it's own right. The 're-pricing' of the payments system automatically generates a capital gain for the Bitcoin units obtains. For example: When I last looked, it would take only about USD 20 Million on two exchanges (BTC-e and Bitstamp) to buy 90% of the liquidity. That would drive the pricing up to over USD 1000 per BTC ... and generate on a 'mark to market' basis, about a USD 8 Million profit. The more extreme the 'buy in', the more this effect gets magnified. Add to that, the panic buy it would induce from other players and the upward re-pricing could easily be more extreme. So the question is: What Bitcoin price is needed to compete with SWIFT? One way to estimate this, is to take total official world trade (USD 71 Trillion) plus the black economy or System D (est USD 30 Trillion), and map it against the approx 13 Million Bitcoins that have been mined. Very roughly, that means if one Bitcoin is the equivalent of USD 10 Million, Bitcoin could settle all world trade. Clearly, Bitcoin would still be competing with USD as they will still exist, and the USD has it's supporters. So a lower target exchange rate would suffice - perhaps USD 1 Million to start. At a guess, spending about USD 250 Million right now, especially as part of announced policy, would drive the re-pricing of Bitcoin towards a level suitable for trade settlement. For a BRICS sovereign nation, USD 250 million is small change. From the BRICS perspective, the capital gains are not very interesting, but re-pricing the Bitcoin system to make it competitive against SWIFT really is. Just as interesting from their perspective, even though Bitcoin is beyond the direct control of any government, the BRICS countries are not threatened by that lack of control. They all have actual hard assets and population at the core of their wealth. They are directly threatened by the financialisation of the world which disproportionately benefits the US and it's close allies to the BRICS detriment. The SWIFT system is one of the major components of that financial system. Only the elites of the west (and not the general public), are threatened if US control of world finances is reduced via a competitor for SWIFT. I am surprised that the various economics and treasury advisors in the BRICS countries have not suggested this obvious solution. A solution that is available almost instantly to a sovereign nation, without any major risk if it does not work. In the mean time, even minor 'whales' from the wider Forex world could trigger this upward re-pricing if they want to!! So I wonder who will be first to move. Final note: Sovereign nations like China have a unique advantage. China could achieve the same out come by decree - simply by fixing an exchange rate for one Satoshi equal to one external Yuan (CNH) ... that would leave their capital controls intact, but instantly create the competitor to SWIFT that they need. S.N. Edit: Formatting
I'm fairly new to trading Forex and I have a demo account that I just started 2 weeks ago and I've been really liking trading. Something I noticed today was that the Net P/L wasn't reflecting the profits I was actually making, and I wanted some clarification on why this is so. For example, I have 2 trades: USD/CNH Net amount 20k P/L 96.4 Net P/L +28.79 GBP/JPY Net Amount 20k P/L -14.7 Net P/L -26.89 Why is it that the P/L are vastly different the positive one being much higher than the negative one, yet the Net P/L are very close off by 2? I have no closed positions on either trade. Any insight would be apprciated
Further upside in USD/CNH is likely to test the 6.8600 region in the next weeks, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group.. Key Quotes. 24-hour view: “Last Friday, we expected USD to ‘trade sideways between 6.8000 and 6.8400’. USD subsequently traded within a narrower and slightly higher range than expected (6.8110/6.8448) before closing little changed at 6.8236 (-0.05%). CNY is the international currency code for the Chinese Yuan, in much the same way USD and GBP are the currency codes for the US Dollar and the British Pound respectively. Confusingly, the CNY currency code refers to two versions of the Chinese Yua... Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com. On a 240-minute timeframe, USD/CNH has formed a rising triangle formation and appears on the verge of breaking higher. The target for a rising triangle is the height of the triangle added to the breakout point, which would put price near 7.3400. FX Leaders AUD/CNH live charts will fill you in on everything you need to know to trade the AUD/CNH. ... Risk Warning: Trading forex, cryptocurrencies, indices, and commodities are potentially high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high level of leverage can work both for and against traders. On Friday, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index climbed to a 2-month high of 94.64, amid continued short covering. USD/CNH rebounded 0.6% last week, halting an 8-week decline. This week, investors will focus on the release of China’s September official Manufacturing PMI (a slight improvement to 51.3 expected), Non-manufacturing PMI (edging down to 54.7 expected) and […]
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